Mercado de generación distribuida de Argentina: El diablo está en los detalles

Mercado de generación distribuida de Argentina: El diablo está en los detalles

Articles, Energy, Energy Articles, Energy Features

Cecilia AguillĂłn
Institute of the Americas Director, Energy Transition Initiative
March 8, 2019
This article was fist published in PV Magazine

Durante décadas, los mercados de generación renovable distribuida (GD) han estado creciendo en el hemisferio occidental en áreas fuera de la red. Sin embargo, los proyectos fotovoltaicos conectados a la red están en apogeo, en la mayoría de los países América Latina que están desarrollando sus programas de transición energética. El último país en anunciar la promulgación de leyes para el mercado GD es Argentina.

En diciembre de 2018, Argentina publicó regulaciones para implementar la ley No. 27.191 para acelerar su mercado GD, descentralizar las fuentes de energía, reducir las emisiones y crear empleos. Al igual que con la mayoría de las medidas legales y reglamentarias incipientes, el éxito dependerá del diseño de políticas adecuadas que atraigan la inversión local y hagan crecer su mercado GD en forma sostenible. El momento no podría ser mejor, ya que los costos de la tecnología renovable se encuentran en su nivel más bajo en la historia, y Argentina puede aprender de las lecciones significativas de mercados más maduros, evitar errores y adaptar las mejores prácticas a su conjunto único de condiciones.

 

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Los mercados de generación distribuida en América Latina han estado creciendo en los últimos diez años gracias a la rápida caída en los precios de los equipos solares y al aumento de los costos de la energía convencional. En enero, PV Magazine informó que Brasil alcanzó un total de 500 MW en instalaciones de GD. Un año antes, la revista informó que México había superado los 400 MW en 2017; y es muy probable que el mercado mexicano ya haya superado los 500 MW. Los países centroamericanos también han estado desarrollando sus mercados, aunque a un ritmo más lento Pero vale la pena mencionar que el líder del mercado en las Américas sigue siendo California, donde la Comisión de Servicios Públicos (CPUC) informó que 7.6 GW de capacidad instalada acumulada fue lograda al final del año 2018.

Desde los mercados altamente promocionados como California, México y Brasil, vemos políticas en común como son el aumento de los costos de la electricidad convencional, la fácil interconexión y la medición neta. Sin embargo, la medición neta puede no ser un motor de arranque en Argentina donde los distribuidores de electricidad y los operadores de la red parecen opuestos a esta política. Además, los precios de la electricidad en Argentina son artificialmente bajos, y actualmente se encuentran cerca de los USD $ 0.05 / kWh. Sin embargo, a partir de ese desafío hay una oportunidad para que el gobierno reduzca sus subsidios a la electricidad al mismo tiempo que sustituye las fuentes de energía limpia con un programa de GD bien diseñado y ejecutado. Cada vez está más claro que existen opciones para que Argentina pueda superar su conjunto único de desafíos.

Si reducir los subsidios a la energía es políticamente prohibitivo en Argentina e incluso los precios solares actuales no son rentables para la mayoría de usuarios, el mercado de GD podría beneficiar a los grandes consumidores de energía en el sector industrial que actualmente pagan más de USD $ 0,10 / kWh.

El Salvador y Guatemala, por ejemplo no ofrecen medición neta y el exceso de generación de sistemas fotovoltaicos se compensa a los precios de mayoreo, pero su recuperación es de casi menos de 5 años, según los instaladores locales, porque las tarifas de electricidad actuales son de dos dígitos. Para mercado de grandes usuarios de energía, la facilidad de las reglas de interconexión y el acceso a financiamiento de bajo costo pueden ser incentivos suficientes. Esto podría crear un impulso para acelerar la industria local, ya que los proveedores e instaladores de tecnología fotovoltaica pueden crecer, competir y reducir los costos de instalación. Si el país desea llegar a los consumidores residenciales que pagan menos de USD $ 0,10 / kWh, el desafío es mucho mayor.

La Comisión de Servicios Públicos de California enfrentó una situación similar al implementar la Iniciativa Solar del Estado. Aunque las tarifas de electricidad eran altas para comenzar, la tecnología era un 80% más cara que hoy, por lo que la energía solar no era factible cuando se creó la Iniciativa. Los subsidios se diseñaron para pagar los kWhs de energía solar producida por los clientes, pero los subsidios solo duraban cinco años porque ese fue el tiempo estimado y aceptable para el retorno de la inversión. De manera similar, los clientes de energía solar argentinos podrían obtener un subsidio basado en la producción de kWhs por un corto período de tiempo como incentivo para acelerar el mercado, especialmente cuando la medición neta no es una opción.

El fácil acceso y el bajo costo de financiamiento pueden ayudar a Argentina a promover el mercado de GD de manera efectiva. América Latina es conocida por sus altas tasas de interés, a menudo más del 10%. A pesar de que los costos de la energía fotovoltaica se encuentran en un mínimo histórico, el pago de una tasa de interés del 12% para un proyecto fotovoltaico industrial cambiaría la rentabilidad desde un par de años si se compra en efectivo hasta diez años o más cuando se financia. Por lo tanto, Argentina podría diseñar un programa de préstamos con tasas de interés más bajas que las actuales. El fondo podría recuperarse y regenerarse para ayudar a los futuros clientes. Un financiamiento factible podría hacer que los proyectos de GD sean rentables y el mercado crecería de inmediato.

Para que la Generación Distribuida prospere en Argentina, las inversiones en energía solar deben obtener un retorno de inversión razonable. Tener eso en mente y al mismo tiempo asegurarse de que los distribuidores de energía paguen una tarifa justa por el exceso de kWhs puede parecer complicado, pero estos son dos de los detalles más importantes a considerar para que las políticas de GD muevan al mercado. Afortunadamente, varios países en el mundo le brindan a Argentina un menú de herramientas de políticas que se pueden modificar y adaptar para arrancar un mercado con éxito.

 

USMCA and Latin American Energy Diplomacy Under a New US Congress

USMCA and Latin American Energy Diplomacy Under a New US Congress

Articles, Energy Articles, Energy Features

Dec 11 2018 – Washington DC

November’s midterm elections altered the balance of power in Washington, and the new Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, which will mean new chairs on key committees, will play an important role in shaping US energy diplomacy and energy markets in the Western Hemisphere. At an event co-hosted by the Inter-American Dialogue and the Institute of the Americas, panelists discussed how the new Congress will approach key issues affecting energy within the context of Latin America’s evolving role in US trade and foreign policy.

In his keynote remarks, Nelson Cunningham, president of McLarty Associates, stressed that the approval of the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) will take center stage as the new Congress assumes power, with major consequences for North American trade. Though the Democratic base has become increasingly pro-trade, Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats may be reluctant to yield a major political win to President Donald Trump, and Pelosi could attempt to stall a vote on the deal as she did with the Colombia Free Trade Agreement in 2008.

At least publicly, Democratic leaders have expressed their desire to work with the president on reaching an agreement, which could deliver some minor improvements over the original North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but they have concerns about elements related to labor and the environment, as well as about the deal’s overall enforceability, panelists noted. It remains to be seen whether the president is willing to negotiate or will resort immediately to his nuclear option: a unilateral withdrawal from NAFTA, which would leave Democrats with six months to decide between the USMCA and the grim alternative of no free trade deal at all. All parties would lose in North America’s highly integrated energy industry, including US refiners and gas producers that import crude oil, steel, and aluminum from both neighboring countries and export heavily to Mexico.

Beyond trade, Congress also has broad powers in global energy diplomacy. The House has important influence on areas such as foreign aid, tax policy, and natural gas exports. Panelists discussed strategic goals the new Congress can pursue next year, such as preventing oil from becoming part of conflicts in the region and reinforcing political stability and good governance. In particular, two new committee chairs will shoulder special responsibility in setting the agenda. Representative Eliot Engel, who will take the helm as chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, brings a strong track record in US-Latin America engagement, having previously chaired the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee. Representative Albio Sires will assume the top role on that subcommittee, and will emphasize his tough stance on Venezuela and on Cuba, where he was born. Closer cooperation on energy in the hemisphere will benefit both the US and Latin American partners, and in the current complex political environment, the new Congress should resolve not to let it fall by the wayside.

Women Empowerment in Renewable Energy Program

Women Empowerment in Renewable Energy Program

Articles, Energy Articles

October 2018
Jacqueline Sanchez Pando, Energy & Sustainability Policy Associate at the Institute of the Americas is currently participating in the Women Empowerment in Renewable Energy Program developed by the US Department of Energy and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

The program’s objectives are to support participants to expand their knowledge and skills in the renewable energy sector (i.e. technology, markets, policies, economic and social dimensions); to further their understanding of the energy-women nexus & the possible link to energy poverty; and to expand their professional network to other regions of the world.

The aforementioned program initially hosted a group of 50 female executives, government officials, and academia in their mid-career in the field from APEC’s 21 economies.

Jacqueline and a group of fifteen fellow participants have been nominated to attend the one-week face-to face training in APEC HQ in Singapore to take place in late Oct. early November. The training will bring policy, gender and business experts to widen participants learning of social, gender and environmental co-benefits of renewable energy developments. It will take place during Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW).

Argentina’s Energy Outlook: Normalization and Boosting Compettiveness

Argentina’s Energy Outlook: Normalization and Boosting Compettiveness

Articles, Energy Articles

Continuing a discussion begun in 2015 on the key elements facing the energy sector in Argentina, the Institute of the Americas convened an Energy Roundtable on March 21 in Buenos Aires.

The Roundtable counted three high-level discussion panels and was attended by over 75 representatives from industry, government, and academia. The panels at the Roundtable featured optimistic and robust discussion of Argentina’s energy sector, but particularly the structural adjustments and reforms enacted by the Macri administration.

The efforts to “normalize” the sector are beginning to pay dividends with an improved fiscal outlook and institutional and market credibility. A series of regional integration projects and energy exchanges with neighboring countries, ones that were but dots and lines on a power point slide just 2-3 years ago, are now a reality.

But amid the optimism and positive outlook, there were words of caution. Of greatest concern for all segments of the energy sector are the impacts of stubbornly high costs and inflation, elements that have and will continue to impede competitiveness but particularly the development of the highly-touted Vaca Muerta unconventional play in the country.

Beyond managing labor costs, the topic of how to boost a more competitive oil and gas sector focused on the need to greatly expand not just the number and capabilities of service and equipment providers, but also to exponentially increase the amount of operators in the country’s oil patch. One panelist persuasively argued that an increase on the order of ten times the current number of market participants is required to develop a competitive oil and gas ecosystem; a growth in not just majors, but all manner of companies and expertise.

The profound transformation of the global energy sector is clearly being felt in Argentina panelists concurred. Indeed, the country’s renewable energy auctions were oversubscribed and highlighted as an important step. However, panelists tended to agree that the adoption of key tenets of the energy transition are moving slowly with deployment of renewables hindered by financing and the country’s boom-bust and default legacy, while significant advances on storage and electrification of the transport sector seem farther off in Argentina.

Mexico’s Fuels Market and Infrastructure – A Complex Transition

Mexico’s Fuels Market and Infrastructure – A Complex Transition

Articles, Energy Articles, Energy Features

Mexico’s energy reforms have brought a major overhaul of the nation’s entire energy sector. Among the myriad changes being implemented, major opportunities have emerged with regards to Mexico’s fuels and liquids market, as well as infrastructure development associated with fuel sales, supply, storage and distribution. Mexico’s fuels market is the fourth largest in the world and has experienced considerable growth in the last several years making it attractive to a wide-range of companies and investors. Growth is driven by transportation, power demand and underpinned by strong population growth.

Last year saw several deregulation milestones met on the path toward a liberalized fuel market, as well as important advances in open seasons aimed at ultimately boosting related infrastructure, both in liquid fuels and natural gas.  In what has become a rapidly changing market, a growing list of international companies, traders and Mexican firms have begun to develop projects with an eye to establishing themselves in Mexico’s fuel and liquids business.

This “complex transition” was at the center of three high-level discussion panels hosted by the Institute of the Americas on February 27 in Mexico City and attended by over 90 representatives from industry, government, and academia.

Panelists generally agreed that development of the fuel market was on the right track and that the reform measures had boosted investment in energy infrastructure. The proliferation of new market players (40 brands as of this week) in the fuel retail market and the choices being created for consumers is important.

But, there was less consensus on whether Mexico would soon see a truly competitive fuels market that could fully serve the growing demand in Mexico and its citizens, not to mention what the key next steps should be before the July elections. In an interesting development, several speakers put on the table the need for further energy reform in Mexico. Panelists also argued that government and industry alike must continue to aim for efficiency, continuity, stability and long-term regulatory certainty.